Download The Signal and the Noise PDF

The Signal and the Noise

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Publisher : Penguin
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ISBN : 1101595957
Pages : 544 pages
Rating : 4.9/5 (595 Download)

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Download Free The Signal and the Noise PDF by Nate Silver Full Book and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2012-09-27 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Download Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't PDF

Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't

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Publisher : Open Road Media
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ISBN : 1504043693
Pages : 30 pages
Rating : 4.4/5 (43 Download)

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Download Free Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't PDF by Worth Books Full Book and published by Open Road Media. This book was released on 2017-01-10 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.

Download The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes PDF

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

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Publisher :
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ISBN : 9781623150525
Pages : 46 pages
Rating : 4.2/5 (523 Download)

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Download Free The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes PDF by Full Book and published by . This book was released on 2012-11 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Download Summary of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media PDF

Summary of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media

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Publisher : Milkyway Media
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ISBN :
Pages : 38 pages
Rating : 4./5 ( Download)

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Download Free Summary of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media PDF by Milkyway Media Full Book and published by Milkyway Media. This book was released on 2018-08-31 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t (2012), considers the common shortcomings statisticians face when attempting to make predictions. While bad predictions can lead to setbacks and false beliefs, accurate predictions can advance scientific knowledge, government efficiency, the quality of education, and other social projects and goals… Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

Download Digital new deal: the quest for a natural law in a digital society PDF

Digital new deal: the quest for a natural law in a digital society

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Publisher : CEDAM
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ISBN : 881337187X
Pages : 477 pages
Rating : 4.7/5 (371 Download)

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Download Free Digital new deal: the quest for a natural law in a digital society PDF by Riccardo Genghini Full Book and published by CEDAM. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The quest for a natural law that can be applied to a digital society may sound like an oxymoron, but it is a necessary quest if we hope to institute a “Digital New Deal”: Hence the title of this book. Today once again, mass media is disrupting society, much as radio and cinema were used to buttress totalitarianism in the 1920s … or even worse, in the 15th century, when the printing of the Bible unleashed 100 years of war, plague and instability. Things get messy when people disagree on facts rather than ideas. Natural law springs from the features of the physical world, which contains boundaries (an inside and an outside), limited resources, living individuals, objects, living animals, living plants, climate, the four elements, etc. None of this is a given in the digital world, which looks today like feudalism in a box, with (fire)walled communities run by unelected autocrats (system administrators) ruling over countless subjects, whose identities are tied to the domain of the (fire)walled community and whose rights can only be enforced by the autocratic system administrator. This dystopic reality is neither necessary nor inevitable. It is the consequence of bad technical design and inappropriate business models, which are destroying the spirit of free pluralism that enabled them to thrive in the first place. Information technology has its own ontology and “natural” rules, and we must understand them and learn to regard them as being among the founding legal principles of our free, open, pluralistic societies. Of the 12 founding digital principles addressed here, the most important may well be that we must each own and control our digital identities. In the world created by information technology, everyone and everything should possess a UID, a unique identifier. Without one, we are just helpless particles lost in a dark and hostile universe.

Download The New Behaviorism PDF

The New Behaviorism

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Publisher : Routledge
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ISBN : 1000389685
Pages : 328 pages
Rating : 4.8/5 (389 Download)

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Download Free The New Behaviorism PDF by John Staddon Full Book and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This ground-breaking book presents a brief history of behaviorism, along with a critical analysis of radical behaviorism, its philosophy and its applications to social issues. This third edition is much expanded and includes a new chapter on experimental method as well as longer sections on the philosophy of behaviorism. It offers experimental and theoretical examples of a new approach to behavioral science. It provides an alternative philosophical and empirical foundation for a psychology that has rather lost its way. The mission of the book is to help steer experimental psychology away from its current undisciplined indulgence in "mental life" toward the core of science, which is an economical description of nature: parsimony, explain much with little. The elementary philosophical distinction between private and public events, even biology, evolution and animal psychology are all ignored by much contemporary cognitive psychology. The failings of radical behaviorism as well as a philosophically defective cognitive psychology point to the need for a new theoretical behaviorism, which can deal with problems such as "consciousness" that have been either ignored, evaded or muddled by existing approaches. This new behaviorism provides a unified framework for the science of behavior that can be applied both to the laboratory and to broader practical issues such as law and punishment, the health-care system, and teaching.

Download Data Analytics PDF

Data Analytics

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Publisher : CRC Press
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ISBN : 1000372456
Pages : 273 pages
Rating : 4.7/5 (372 Download)

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Download Free Data Analytics PDF by Shuai Huang Full Book and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-04-16 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data Analytics: A Small Data Approach is suitable for an introductory data analytics course to help students understand some main statistical learning models. It has many small datasets to guide students to work out pencil solutions of the models and then compare with results obtained from established R packages. Also, as data science practice is a process that should be told as a story, in this book there are many course materials about exploratory data analysis, residual analysis, and flowcharts to develop and validate models and data pipelines. The main models covered in this book include linear regression, logistic regression, tree models and random forests, ensemble learning, sparse learning, principal component analysis, kernel methods including the support vector machine and kernel regression, and deep learning. Each chapter introduces two or three techniques. For each technique, the book highlights the intuition and rationale first, then shows how mathematics is used to articulate the intuition and formulate the learning problem. R is used to implement the techniques on both simulated and real-world dataset. Python code is also available at the book’s website: http://dataanalyticsbook.info.

Download Becoming a Data Head PDF

Becoming a Data Head

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
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ISBN : 1119741769
Pages : 272 pages
Rating : 4.4/5 (741 Download)

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Download Free Becoming a Data Head PDF by Alex J. Gutman Full Book and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Turn yourself into a Data Head. You'll become a more valuable employee and make your organization more successful." Thomas H. Davenport, Research Fellow, Author of Competing on Analytics, Big Data @ Work, and The AI Advantage You’ve heard the hype around data—now get the facts. In Becoming a Data Head: How to Think, Speak, and Understand Data Science, Statistics, and Machine Learning, award-winning data scientists Alex Gutman and Jordan Goldmeier pull back the curtain on data science and give you the language and tools necessary to talk and think critically about it. You’ll learn how to: Think statistically and understand the role variation plays in your life and decision making Speak intelligently and ask the right questions about the statistics and results you encounter in the workplace Understand what’s really going on with machine learning, text analytics, deep learning, and artificial intelligence Avoid common pitfalls when working with and interpreting data Becoming a Data Head is a complete guide for data science in the workplace: covering everything from the personalities you’ll work with to the math behind the algorithms. The authors have spent years in data trenches and sought to create a fun, approachable, and eminently readable book. Anyone can become a Data Head—an active participant in data science, statistics, and machine learning. Whether you’re a business professional, engineer, executive, or aspiring data scientist, this book is for you.

Download Demystifying Climate Models PDF

Demystifying Climate Models

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Publisher : Springer
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ISBN : 3662489597
Pages : 274 pages
Rating : 4.8/5 (489 Download)

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Download Free Demystifying Climate Models PDF by Andrew Gettelman Full Book and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-09 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Download God and Randomness PDF

God and Randomness

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Publisher : Wipf and Stock Publishers
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ISBN : 1532638981
Pages : 200 pages
Rating : 4.3/5 (638 Download)

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Download Free God and Randomness PDF by Thomas R. McFaul Full Book and published by Wipf and Stock Publishers. This book was released on 2017-12-01 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of us have experienced the impact of randomness in our lives not only as individuals but in our interactions with others as well. In God and Randomness, which is a sequel to our 2014 publication God Is Here to Stay: Science, Evolution, and Belief in God, we describe the connection between randomness and God and how this connection has permeated our universe from the start. We cover several areas that include personal stories, the micro and macro sources of world events, the origins of our cosmos and solar system, the emergence of human mindfulness and choice, major episodes of the twentieth century, the future, and the quest for fairness. In the course of examining these topics, we identify how current scientific research is consistent with our speculation of how God influences our lives in the presence of all this randomness. We conclude that the random events affecting us may originate in other dimensions that are inaccessible to us and that God is actively at work in the chaos and randomness that pervades our lives and our world.

Download Playing against Nature PDF

Playing against Nature

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
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ISBN : 1118620801
Pages : 280 pages
Rating : 4.2/5 (62 Download)

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Download Free Playing against Nature PDF by Seth Stein Full Book and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-04-09 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes gameof chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should adeveloping nation allocate its budget between building schools fortowns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant?Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods,or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives besaved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the fundsfor patient care? What should scientists tell the public when– as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes,California – there is a real but small risk of an upcomingearthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes,earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles suchchoices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake,hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expectedfrom detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmartsus, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures orcausing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that areoverestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact thatformulating effective natural hazard policy involves combiningscience, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem andexplore the costs and benefits of different options, in situationswhere the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies aretypically chosen without such analysis, the results are oftendisappointing. This book uses general principles and case studiesto explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view ofnatural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevantgeoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulationseparately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapterinvite readers to confront the complex issues involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, andstudents interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, orpolicy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-levelundergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be found at: ahref="http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature"http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature/a

Download AI and the Project Manager PDF

AI and the Project Manager

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Publisher : Routledge
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ISBN : 1000464172
Pages : 158 pages
Rating : 4.6/5 (464 Download)

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Download Free AI and the Project Manager PDF by Peter Taylor Full Book and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-10-28 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Enabling project managers to adapt to the new technology of artificial intelligence, this first comprehensive book on the topic discusses how AI will reinvent the project world and allow project managers to focus on people. Studies show that by 2030, 80 percent of project management tasks, such as data collection, reporting, and predictive analysis, will be carried out by AI in a consistent and efficient manner. This book sets out to explore what this will mean for project managers around the world and equips them to embrace this technological advantage for greater project success. Filled with insights and examples from tech providers and project experts, this book is an invaluable resource for PMO leaders, change executives, project managers, programme managers, and portfolio managers. Anyone who is part of the global community of change and project leadership needs to accept and understand the fast- approaching AI technology, and this book shows how to use it to their advantage.

Download Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security PDF

Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security

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Publisher : National Academies Press
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ISBN : 0309473772
Pages : 87 pages
Rating : 4.7/5 (473 Download)

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Download Free Changing Sociocultural Dynamics and Implications for National Security PDF by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Full Book and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-06-18 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beginning in October 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine organized a set of workshops designed to gather information for the Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security. The first workshop focused on changing sociocultural dynamics and implications for national security, and this publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from this workshop.

Download Keeping the Republic: Power and Citizenship in American Politics, 6th Edition The Essentials PDF

Keeping the Republic: Power and Citizenship in American Politics, 6th Edition The Essentials

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Publisher : CQ Press
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ISBN : 1452240035
Pages : 729 pages
Rating : 4.4/5 (24 Download)

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Download Free Keeping the Republic: Power and Citizenship in American Politics, 6th Edition The Essentials PDF by Christine Barbour Full Book and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2013-01-15 with total page 729 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every section and every feature in the book has one goal in mind: to get students to think critically and be skeptical of received wisdom. Serving as a true aid to teachers, each chapter is designed to build students' analytical abilities. By introducing them to the seminal work in the field and showing them how to employ the themes of power and citizenship, this proven text builds confidence in students who want to take an active part in their communities and governmentuto play their part in keeping the republic, and to consider the consequences of that engagement.

Download Too Big to Ignore PDF

Too Big to Ignore

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
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ISBN : 1119217849
Pages : 256 pages
Rating : 4.1/5 (217 Download)

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Download Free Too Big to Ignore PDF by Phil Simon Full Book and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-02 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Residents in Boston, Massachusetts are automatically reporting potholes and road hazards via their smartphones. Progressive Insurance tracks real-time customer driving patterns and uses that information to offer rates truly commensurate with individual safety. Google accurately predicts local flu outbreaks based upon thousands of user search queries. Amazon provides remarkably insightful, relevant, and timely product recommendations to its hundreds of millions of customers. Quantcast lets companies target precise audiences and key demographics throughout the Web. NASA runs contests via gamification site TopCoder, awarding prizes to those with the most innovative and cost-effective solutions to its problems. Explorys offers penetrating and previously unknown insights into healthcare behavior. How do these organizations and municipalities do it? Technology is certainly a big part, but in each case the answer lies deeper than that. Individuals at these organizations have realized that they don't have to be Nate Silver to reap massive benefits from today's new and emerging types of data. And each of these organizations has embraced Big Data, allowing them to make astute and otherwise impossible observations, actions, and predictions. It's time to start thinking big. In Too Big to Ignore, recognized technology expert and award-winning author Phil Simon explores an unassailably important trend: Big Data, the massive amounts, new types, and multifaceted sources of information streaming at us faster than ever. Never before have we seen data with the volume, velocity, and variety of today. Big Data is no temporary blip of fad. In fact, it is only going to intensify in the coming years, and its ramifications for the future of business are impossible to overstate. Too Big to Ignore explains why Big Data is a big deal. Simon provides commonsense, jargon-free advice for people and organizations looking to understand and leverage Big Data. Rife with case studies, examples, analysis, and quotes from real-world Big Data practitioners, the book is required reading for chief executives, company owners, industry leaders, and business professionals.

Download Discordant Democracy: Noise, Affect, Populism, and the Presidential Campaign PDF

Discordant Democracy: Noise, Affect, Populism, and the Presidential Campaign

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Publisher : Routledge
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ISBN : 1351613774
Pages : 176 pages
Rating : 4.1/5 (613 Download)

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Download Free Discordant Democracy: Noise, Affect, Populism, and the Presidential Campaign PDF by Justin Patch Full Book and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-12-17 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discordant Democracy: Noise, Affect, Populism, and the Presidential Campaign paints a portrait of the political experience at a pivotal time in American political and social history. The modern political campaign is aestheticized and assimilated into mass culture, divorced from fact and policy, and nakedly tethered to emotional appeal. Through a multi-modal comparative examination of the sonic and emotional cultures of the 2008 and 2016 campaigns, Justin Patch raises critical queries about our affective relationship to modern politics and the impact of emotional campaigning on democracy. Discordant Democracy asks: how do campaign sounds affect us; what role do we the electorate play in creating and sustaining these sounds and affects; and what actions do they generate? Theories from anthropology, cognitive science, sound studies and philosophy are engaged to grapple with these questions and connect bombastic mass-mediated political events, campaign media and individual sonic experience. The analyses complicate notions of top-down campaigning, political spin, and enthusiastic millennial populism by examining our role in producing and animating political sounds through conversation, applause, laughter, media, and music.

Download Rethinking Risk in National Security PDF

Rethinking Risk in National Security

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Publisher : Springer
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ISBN : 1349918431
Pages : 246 pages
Rating : 4.1/5 (918 Download)

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Download Free Rethinking Risk in National Security PDF by Michael J. Mazarr Full Book and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the role of risk management in the recent financial crisis and applies lessons from there to the national security realm. It rethinks the way risk contributes to strategy, with insights relevant to practitioners and scholars in national security as well as business. Over the past few years, the concept of risk has become one of the most commonly discussed issues in national security planning. And yet the experiences of the 2007-2008 financial crisis demonstrated critical limitations in institutional efforts to control risk. The most elaborate and complex risk procedures could not cure skewed incentives, cognitive biases, groupthink, and a dozen other human factors that led companies to take excessive risk. By embracing risk management, the national security enterprise may be turning to a discipline just as it has been discredited.